Market cap is price times CIRCULATING supply — the tokens actually out in the world. FDV (fully diluted valuation) is price times TOTAL supply, counting every token that exists or will: team allocations, locked chunks, unvested rewards. The gap between them is supply that has not hit the market yet — but can.
A token with a $2M cap and a $20M FDV
Circulating — priced in10%
Team + locked — waiting55%
Future emissions35%
A 10× gap means nine dollars of future supply hang over every dollar of current market. As locks expire and emissions vest, that supply needs new buyers just to keep the price flat. FDV is not a prediction — it is the size of the wave the price has to swim against.
The comparison habit
Cap and FDV close together: most supply is out, what you see is what you get. FDV many times the cap: read the unlock schedule before anything else — you are buying against a queue.
Where this goes next
The gap between the two is supply that has not been issued yet — the supply lesson from chapter 1, and the authority that can create it.